ピックルボール専門メディアのThe Dinkが、2021年5月から2026年5月までにUSA Pickleball（USAP）が認定したパドル4,101本を独自に解析し、6月30日に公開した。結論は「認定数はピーク比6割減、でも素材設計は加速度的に高度化している」ということだ。数だけ見れば市場は縮んで見えるが、実態は淘汰と進化が同時に走る成熟局面である。日本のプレーヤーが売り場で手にするパドルも、この1年で確実に素材構成が変わっている。
Certifications have shrunk to 40% of the peak
According to The Dink's tally, USAP certified a cumulative 4,101 paddles over five years, from 1,214 participating brands. Year by year, new certifications in 2021 numbered 209, then peaked at 1,293 in 2024. 2025 was down 27% from there, and 2026 is on a pace of roughly 518 for the year—about a 60% drop from the peak.
But reading this figure as "the end of the boom" is premature. Looking at the brand breakdown, 611 of the 1,214 companies—exactly half—are entrants that "certified just one paddle and never came back." The top 10 brands hold a mere 13% of certification share. In other words, the peak-time swelling was largely padded by one-off certifications from small players who entered but didn't stay. If the decline is the result of that layer disappearing, it means something different from a shrinking of the market itself.
Foam cores overtook polypropylene
もっと注目すべきは素材の変化だ。2025年1月より前、認定パドルの91.5%はポリプロピレンのハニカムコアで、フォームコアは2%未満に過ぎなかった。それが2025年1月以降は認定の28%がフォーム入りに跳ね上がり、2026年5月の認定では実に70%がフォームを含む。そして2026年3月、月間の認定でフォーム53%対ポリプロピレン34%と、ついにフォームがハニカムを逆転した。競技パドルの標準素材が、わずか1年強で入れ替わった格好だ。
The change isn't only in core material. Average core thickness thickened from 12.6mm in 2021 to 15.4mm in 2026, and 16mm-and-up models expanded from 15% of all certifications to 74%. Conversely, under-14mm plunged from 64% to 7%. Surfaces also saw raw carbon and processed spin-oriented faces rise from 27% to 62%. Thicker, foam-based, and spin-focused on the surface—this is the basic design of today's certified paddle.
The temperature gap on "going foam" splits by brand
| Brands | Foam-conversion trend from January 2025 onward |
|---|---|
| Ronbus | All 12 certifications foam |
| CRBN | All 9 certifications foam |
| Selkirk | About 82% foam |
| Wilson | About 64% foam |
| JOOLA | 45 new, zero foam |
| Franklin Sports | All 28 certifications polypropylene |
What's interesting is that not every brand is stampeding toward foam. While up-and-comers like Ronbus and CRBN lock in all their certifications with foam, industry heavyweight JOOLA put out 45 new paddles with zero foam, and Franklin Sports ran all 28 as polypropylene. It's more accurate to read this as a stage where foam isn't the "right answer"; rather, each company is splitting where it bets in line with its own philosophy and mass-production technology.
The real reason certifications fell
認定数の減少には、素材の高度化そのものが効いている。フォーム、熱成形（サーモフォーム）、生カーボン、ケブラー混紡といった新素材は、コアの反発挙動を複雑にし、量産時のばらつきも生む。つまり認定審査が以前より難しくなった。加えて2025年以降、UPA-A（プロツアー系の別認定）が並立し、一部ブランドは性能重視の新作をそちらへ優先的に回す動きも出ている。認定の数が減ったのは需要が冷えたからではなく、パドルが「認定しにくいほど進化した」からだ、という逆説的な構図が見えてくる。
The Dink itself adds caveats. Certification timing doesn't match retail release dates; the certification list doesn't include lapsed paddles; and the core-material tally is based on a free-text field, so there's a margin of a few points. It's appropriate to treat the numbers as a way to grasp trends.
What happens to players in Japan
This trend isn't a matter across the water. Mizuno rolled out paddles in earnest in the US in May 2026, and having signed a promotion-partner agreement with the Japan Pickleball Association, it's moving to develop domestic equipment. Since the overseas certification trend leans toward foam, thick cores, and spin-oriented faces, new models entering the Japanese market are likely to be designed in the same direction.Mizuno launches five paddle models in Americamoves can be seen as a harbinger of that.
What buyers should keep in mind is that "certified" doesn't equal "latest design." Polypropylene honeycomb has a gentler rebound and is easier to control; foam carries rebound and power. Thick cores resist off-center hits but bring a heavier swing. Even as material trends shift, whether one suits your play style is a separate question. There's all the more reason to confirm by demo before choosing, in an environment where you can test-hit.a specialty shop in Shibuya where you can test-hit 300 paddlesThe rise of makes for it is likely evidence that the difficulty of this choice is surfacing in Japan too.
Ripple effects on the market and the sport
The fall in certifications and the rise in unit prices are also a sign of the paddle market shifting from "selling volume" to "getting chosen on performance." As the half of brands that enter once and vanish are culled, what remains are companies that can invest in continuous development. In the US, up-and-comers that draw pros with a small elite team, like the garage-born 11SIX24, are emerging.The story of the man who sold 100 paddles from his apartment and lured pros over to 11SIX24shows there's still room to compete on design philosophy rather than mass-production scale.
On the competitive side, the spread of foam and thick cores changes the character of rallies. As rebound and spin increase, both the dink battles at the net and the attacking play from the backcourt speed up. For Japanese competitors facing the world, how the gear they use tracks overseas standards becomes a factor that can't be ignored.
What to check right now
If you're thinking of replacing your paddle, first check the core material (foam or polypropylene) and the core thickness. Next, determine by demo-hitting whether that material fits your issue—do you want rebound, or do you prioritize control? Rather than choosing on the newness of the certification list or brand recognition alone, understand "why it's turned out this way" in the material trend, then pick your one paddle. Now, as the market heads toward maturity, the ability to judge gear becomes the difference in competitive strength.
