The Dink, a pickleball specialist outlet, independently analyzed the 4,101 paddles certified by USA Pickleball (USAP) from May 2021 to May 2026 and published the results on June 30. The conclusion, in a phrase: "certifications are down 60% from the peak, but the substance of paddles is advancing at an accelerating pace." Look only at the numbers and the market seems to be shrinking, but the reality is a maturing phase where culling and evolution run at once. The structure of the paddles Japanese players pick up in the shop has changed markedly over the past year, too. It's worth reading closely.
Certifications have shrunk to 40% of the peak
According to The Dink's tally, USAP certified a cumulative 4,101 paddles over five years, from 1,214 participating brands. Year by year, new certifications in 2021 numbered 209, then peaked at 1,293 in 2024. 2025 was down 27% from there, and 2026 is on a pace of roughly 518 for the year—about a 60% drop from the peak.
But reading this figure as "the end of the boom" is premature. Looking at the brand breakdown, 611 of the 1,214 companies—exactly half—are entrants that "certified just one paddle and never came back." The top 10 brands hold a mere 13% of certification share. In other words, the peak-time swelling was largely padded by one-off certifications from small players who entered but didn't stay. If the decline is the result of that layer disappearing, it means something different from a shrinking of the market itself.
Foam cores overtook polypropylene
The more notable change is in the substance. Before January 2025, 91.5% of certified paddles had polypropylene honeycomb cores, with foam cores under 2%. From January 2025 onward, foam-containing paddles jumped to 28% of certifications, and in the May 2026 certifications a full 70% contain foam. And in March 2026, monthly certifications came in at 53% foam to 34% polypropylene, with foam finally overtaking honeycomb. The standard material for competitive paddles has been swapped out in just over a year.
The change isn't only in core material. Average core thickness thickened from 12.6mm in 2021 to 15.4mm in 2026, and 16mm-and-up models expanded from 15% of all certifications to 74%. Conversely, under-14mm plunged from 64% to 7%. Surfaces also saw raw carbon and processed spin-oriented faces rise from 27% to 62%. Thicker, foam-based, and spin-focused on the surface—this is the basic design of today's certified paddle.
The temperature gap on "going foam" splits by brand
| Brands | Foam-conversion trend from January 2025 onward |
|---|---|
| Ronbus | All 12 certifications foam |
| CRBN | All 9 certifications foam |
| Selkirk | About 82% foam |
| Wilson | About 64% foam |
| JOOLA | 45 new, zero foam |
| Franklin Sports | All 28 certifications polypropylene |
What's interesting is that not every brand is stampeding toward foam. While up-and-comers like Ronbus and CRBN lock in all their certifications with foam, industry heavyweight JOOLA put out 45 new paddles with zero foam, and Franklin Sports ran all 28 as polypropylene. It's more accurate to read this as a stage where foam isn't the "right answer"; rather, each company is splitting where it bets in line with its own philosophy and mass-production technology.
The real reason certifications fell
The very advancement of materials is a factor in the drop in certifications. New materials like foam, thermoforming, raw carbon, and Kevlar blends complicate a core's rebound behavior and create variability in mass production. In other words, testing has gotten harder than before. On top of that, since 2025, UPA-A (a separate pro-tour certification) has run in parallel, and some brands are moving to route performance-focused new products there first. Certifications fell not because demand cooled, but because paddles have "evolved to the point of being hard to certify"—a paradoxical picture emerges.
The Dink itself adds caveats. Certification timing doesn't match retail release dates; the certification list doesn't include lapsed paddles; and the core-material tally is based on a free-text field, so there's a margin of a few points. It's appropriate to treat the numbers as a way to grasp trends.
What happens to players in Japan
This trend isn't a matter across the water. Mizuno rolled out paddles in earnest in the US in May 2026, and having signed a promotion-partner agreement with the Japan Pickleball Association, it's moving to develop domestic equipment. Since the overseas certification trend leans toward foam, thick cores, and spin-oriented faces, new models entering the Japanese market are likely to be designed in the same direction.Mizuno launches five paddle models in Americamoves can be seen as a harbinger of that.
What buyers should keep in mind is that "certified" doesn't equal "latest design." Polypropylene honeycomb has a gentler rebound and is easier to control; foam carries rebound and power. Thick cores resist off-center hits but bring a heavier swing. Even as material trends shift, whether one suits your play style is a separate question. There's all the more reason to confirm by demo before choosing, in an environment where you can test-hit.a specialty shop in Shibuya where you can test-hit 300 paddlesThe rise of makes for it is likely evidence that the difficulty of this choice is surfacing in Japan too.
Ripple effects on the market and the sport
The fall in certifications and the rise in unit prices are also a sign of the paddle market shifting from "selling volume" to "getting chosen on performance." As the half of brands that enter once and vanish are culled, what remains are companies that can invest in continuous development. In the US, up-and-comers that draw pros with a small elite team, like the garage-born 11SIX24, are emerging.The story of the man who sold 100 paddles from his apartment and lured pros over to 11SIX24shows there's still room to compete on design philosophy rather than mass-production scale.
On the competitive side, the spread of foam and thick cores changes the character of rallies. As rebound and spin increase, both the dink battles at the net and the attacking play from the backcourt speed up. For Japanese competitors facing the world, how the gear they use tracks overseas standards becomes a factor that can't be ignored.
What to check right now
If you're thinking of replacing your paddle, first check the core material (foam or polypropylene) and the core thickness. Next, determine by demo-hitting whether that material fits your issue—do you want rebound, or do you prioritize control? Rather than choosing on the newness of the certification list or brand recognition alone, understand "why it's turned out this way" in the material trend, then pick your one paddle. Now, as the market heads toward maturity, the ability to judge gear becomes the difference in competitive strength.
